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    EUR/USD: Neutral: Diminished odds for extension to 1.0450/55. The downward pressure mentioned in recent updates is waning rapidly and the odds for an extension to 1.0450/55 have diminished. That said, only a move back above 1.0620 would indicate that the immediate downward pressure has eased. All in, EUR…

Hesitant to Short EUR Into French Elections; Short USD/JPY Preferable

We have been doggedly bearish on the dollar since the start of the year, but we have been avoiding buying the euro for concerns that the coming elections in the Netherlands and particularly France would weigh on it. Recent weakness in the euro due in part to polls suggesting more support for…

Short EUR/GBP (Macro) Long Term

“In an environment of carry support and market calm, we think the focus has moved away from worries about Brexit effects. Prime Minister May has set outher plans to trigger article 50 in March with enough detail that it this is reflected in the price of GBP. GBP is currently…

Exclusive: Quantitative analyzer Goes bearish EUR/GBP

Quant Signal: Short EUR/GBP. Models show a confluence of negative signals for EUR crosses. Once again, there are eight downtrends for EUR in G10 and no clear uptrends. Our preferred expression is to short EUR/GBP where the trend is just about to break lower. In our view, the options market may…


EUR/USD: Neutral: Immediate downward pressure, room to extend to 1.0450/55.  EUR hit a lot of 1.0492 yesterday before rebounding quickly. We highlighted the patchy downward momentum and the price action was not surprising. The recovery indicates that the downward pressure has waned somewhat but as long as 1.0620 is intact,…

AUD: A Buy On Dips; We Stay Long AUD/USD Targeting 0.78

  Significant AUD downside has started to look more like a tail risk than a central forecast. Commodity prices have risen more than anticipated, liquidity remains ample and volatility is expected to remain in check. Valuation has also corrected. There is now a negative risk premium priced into the AUD…

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