This quarter should reveal post Brexit investment spending Weakness finally coming to the surface. The lag between investment planning and execution is around 6-8 months suggesting that increased planning insecurity should now finally show up in data weakness. Ahead of the government triggering article 50 late March the split position concerning the hard and the soft Brexit camp will come increasingly to the surface.
The SEK TWI has rallied by 2% in December underlining the pro-cyclical stance of the SEK. Even the ECB’s Coeure has adapted a more hawkish stance by emphasizing the the upside risks to the ECB’s 2017 inflation projection/