Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY
EUR/USD: Neutral: Immediate downward pressure towards 1.0615, possibly 1.0575.
The ease of which the strong 1.0700 support was taken out came as a surprise (low has been 1.0653). EUR has likely made a short-term top at 1.0825/30 last week and the current pull-back from the high appears to have room to extend lower towards 1.0615, possibly extending to 1.0575. At this stage, a sustained move below 1.0575 seems unlikely. Resistance is at 1.0735 but only a move back above 1.0760 would indicate that the immediate downward pressure has eased.
GBP/USD: Neutral: In a 1.2350/1.2670 range.
GBP moved below the strong 1.2400 support yesterday but surged after hitting a low of 1.2347. The wild swing reinforces our current neutral view for this pair and further choppy trading is expected in the coming days albeit likely at a broader 1.2350/1.2670 range.
AUD/USD: Bullish: Diminished odds for further AUD strength.*
AUD desperately need to ‘punch above’ the major 0.7700 resistance or the risk of short-term top would increase rapidly. In other words, the bullish phase that started last Friday may come to a premature end unless there is a move above 0.7700 within these 1 to 2 days. Alternatively, a break below 0.7595 would also indicate that a short-term top is in place.
NZD/USD: Shift from bullish to neutral: In a 0.7220/0.7370 range.
The break above 0.7350 yesterday turned out to be a ‘head fake’ as NZD plunged after touching a high of 0.7375. The bullish phase that started more than 3 weeks ago has ended as 0.7280 was breached with an overnight low of 0.7277. The outlook for this pair is deemed as neutral for now and sideway consolidation between 0.7220/0.7370 seems likely. That said, the immediate bias is tilted to the downside.
USD/JPY; Neutral: Immediate downward pressure towards 111.30.
The key short-term resistance indicated at 112.90 yesterday is still intact. As long as this level is not taken out, the immediate bias is still tilted to the downside even though the sharp rebound yesterday has clearly diminished the odds for another leg lower to 111.30.