Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY
EUR/USD: Neutral: Strong rebound to extend to 1.0680.
Expectation for a move below 1.0490 was wrong as EUR surged from a low of 1.0499 last Friday and registered the largest single day gain since early January. The sudden swing higher is accompanied by rather strong momentum and the rebound has scope to extend higher towards the mid-February high of 1.0680. On the downside, 1.0520 is expected to be strong enough to hold any short-term pullback, at least for the next few days (minor support is at 1.0550). The key support is clearly at 1.0490.
GBP/USD: Bearish: Expect further weakness to 1.2200.
GBP hit a low of 1.2215 last Friday, just above the bearish target of 1.2200. While the subsequent sharp recovery has dented the downward momentum, only a move back above 1.2385 would indicate that the bearish phase has ended. Until then, another leg lower towards 1.2200 is not ruled out just yet.
AUD/USD: Neutral: Expect further weakness towards 0.7510.
AUD hit a low of 0.7543 last Friday before recovering quickly. While downward momentum has eased off, the undertone for this pair is still negative and barring a break above 0.7645, another attempt lower to test the strong 0.7510 support still seems likely. As highlighted previously, this is a rather strong support and is unlikely to yield so easily
NZD/USD: Neutral: Approaching oversold but no sign of stabilization just yet.
While we anticipated a move to 0.7010, the rapid pace of the drop is unexpected. NZD hit a low of 0.7003 last Friday and while the decline is quickly approaching oversold, there is no sign of stabilization just yet. As long as 0.7110 is not taken out (minor resistance at 0.7065), the immediate pressure is still on the downside even though any further decline is expected to be at a slower pace and limited to 0.6950 (0.6970 is already a strong support).
USD/JPY: Neutral: Rebound has room to extend to 114.95.
The ‘rebound target’ indicated at 114.95 is not met as USD fell sharply after touching a high of 114.74 last Friday. While the rapid pull-back has dented the upward momentum, another attempt to move towards 114.95 still seems likely. This is a rather strong resistance and is unlikely to break so easily. On downside, support is at 113.50 but only a move below 113.35 would indicate that a short-term top is in place.