Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY
EUR/USD: Neutral: Immediate upwards pressure towards 1.0750.
The strong surge higher in EUR last Friday that easily took the strong resistances at 1.0640 and 1.0680 was unexpected. While the outlook for this pair has improved considerably, at this stage, it is too early to expect a sustained rally. That said, the immediate pressure is clearly on the upside and from here, further extension towards 1.0750 would not be surprising. A daily closing above this level would greatly improve the odds for further up-move towards the year-to-date high at 1.0828. Overall, this pair is expected to stay underpinned in the coming days as long as it can stay above 1.0615.
GBP/USD: Bearish: GBP to grind lower to 1.2100.
GBP eked out a fresh low of 1.2133 last Friday before rebounding quickly. The price action continues to suggest that this pair is trying to form a base but only a move back above 1.2230 (adjusted from 1.2250) would indicate that the current bearish phase has ended. In the meanwhile, further slow grind lower towards 1.2100 is not ruled out even though the odds for such a move are not high.
AUD/USD: Neutral: In a 0.7490/0.7620 range.
AUD rebounded strongly last Friday and registered the largest single day gain since mid-Feb. The pull-back from the 0.7741 peak (on 23 Feb) is showing signs of stabilizing but at this stage, it is too early to expect a sustained recovery. That said, the odds for further weakness have decreased considerably and it appears that AUD has moved into a 0.7490/0.7620 consolidation range.
NZD/USD: Neutral: Early and tentative signs of basing.
As noted last Friday, the pace of the decline in NZD has slowed and it is getting increasingly likely that this pair is trying to form a short-term base. That said, it’s early days yet even though the odds for a break below last December’s low near 0.6860/65 have diminished. In the meanwhile, NZD is expected to trade sideways at these lower levels, likely within a 0.6880/0.6980 range.
USD/JPY: Neutral: In a 113.60/116.60 range.
We highlighted last Friday that only a clear break of 115.60 would shift the current neutral outlook to bullish. While a failure to move above this level was not unexpected, the sharp and rapid drop from a high of 115.50 came as a surprise. The recent build-up in upward momentum has eased and while the undertone is still generally positive, USD appears to have move into a 113.60/115.60 consolidation range that could last for several days.