Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY
EUR/USD: Neutral: Recovery to extend to 1.0825/30.
After two days of rather sharp decline, the sudden swing higher was unexpected. The immediate pressure has shifted to the upside and the current EUR strength appears incomplete. The recovery appears to have room to extend higher towards the year-to-date high at 1.0825/30 but at this stage, a clear break above this level seems unlikely. Support is at 1.0670 but only a move back below 1.0630 would indicate that the immediate upward pressure has eased
GBP/USD: Neutral: In a higher 1.2150/1.2370 range.
GBP hit a high of 1.2308 yesterday, a few pips above the expected 1.2100/1.2300 consolidation range. While the undertone has improved with the strong daily closing, it is too early to expect a sustained rally. That said, the current upmove has room to extend higher but at this stage, we view any GBP strength as part of a 1.2150/1.2370 consolidation range (higher than the 1.2100/1.2300 expected previously).
AUD/USD: Neutral: Bullish only if above 0.7740.
The outsized gain of about 2% (largest single day rise since Jun 2015) has clearly shifted the immediate pressure to the upside. While the undertone is clearly positive, AUD has to move clearly above last month’s peak near 0.7740 to indicate that it has moved into a bullish phase. In the meanwhile, AUD is expected to stay underpinned in the coming days with solid support at 0.7600. On a shorter-term note, 0.7650 is already a strong level.
NZD/USD: Neutral: Scope for extension to 0.7085.
While we indicated in recent updates that NZD is “trying to form a base for a stronger recovery”, the sudden surge higher yesterday came as a surprise. The recovery appears incomplete and there is scope for extension to 0.7085. Only a move back below 0.6920 would indicate that the immediate upward pressure has eased.
USD/JPY: Neutral: Extension lower unlikely to have enough momentum to reach 111.65/70.
While the sharp decline yesterday is accompanied by rather strong momentum, the late February low of 111.65/70 is likely out of reach (minor support at 112.70). That said, downward pressure is expected to continue to grow unless USD can reclaim 114.30 in the next few days.