Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY
EUR/USD: Neutral: In a 1.0715/1.0905 range.
We continue to hold the view that EUR has made a short term top at 1.0904 on Monday. The current movement is viewed as part of consolidation phase even though the immediate bias is for a probe lower towards the bottom of the expected 1.0715/1.0905 range. That said, the sharp drop yesterday has increased the risk of a deeper down-move towards the next support at 1.0655. In the next few days, any rebound is expected to face stiff resistance at 1.0830
GBP/USD: Neutral: Pull-back has scope to extend lower to 1.2300.
We shifted from a bullish to a neutral stance yesterday and there is no change to the view. The current movement is viewed as a corrective pull-back which has scope to extend lower to 1.2300. At this stage, a sustained move below this level is not expected. All in, GBP is expected to stay under pressure from here unless it can move and stay above 1.2505 within these few days.
AUD/USD; Neutral: Increased odds of a short-term low.
We indicated yesterday that “AUD has to close above 0.7685 to indicate that another attempt to take out the major 0.7740/50 resistance has started”. While the daily closing is below 0.7685, the odds for a short-term low have improved further. The positive undertone would remain intact unless there is a drop back below 0.7610.
NZD/USD: Neutral: In a 0.6950/0.7090 range. [No change in view]
NZD traded in a relatively narrow range yesterday and there is no further clue. We continue to view the current movement as part of a broad 0.6950/0.7090 consolidation range.
USD/JPY: Neutral: Above 111.50 indicates a short-term low is in place.
While USD closed largely unchanged yesterday, the recent downward pressure has eased further. However, only a daily closing above 111.50 would indicate that a short-term low is in place (and the start of a sustained recovery to 112.30). This appears to be a likely scenario unless USD was to drop back below 110.55 within these few days.