Short AUD/CAD. Macro-Medium-Term
“We believe that the stronger Canadian-US economic links, relative to Australian-US economic links, will lead to the BoC lagging the FOMC by less than the RBA.
US protectionism is being aimed mainly at Mexico and China. So any ramping up of US protectionism around the coming G20 meetings and the US Treasury’s currency report will weigh more on the AUD than the CAD.
A lot of good news about Chinese construction has been built into the price of iron ore, which leaves its price vulnerable to a pullback. Oil prices will likely remain trapped between OPEC and Russian supply cuts, as well as rising supply from US producers,”