Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY
EUR/USD: Neutral: Bullish if daily closing above 1.0870/75.
We indicated in recent updates that a move towards last December 1.0870/75 high could not be ruled out even though we did not attach a high probability for such a move. The strong opening this morning that easily took out the major 1.0825/30 resistance came as a surprise and the odds for further EUR strength has increased considerably. From here, a daily closing above 1.0870/75 would indicate that EUR has entered a bullish phase with an immediate target of 1.0955. This scenario would not be surprising unless EUR were to drop back below the key support at 1.0775.
GBP/USD: Bullish: To take half-profit at 1.2545/50.
While the strong opening this morning bodes well for our bullish view, we still consider the late-February high of 1.2570 as a very strong resistance. Those who are long should continue to book partial profit at 1.2545/50 and hold the remaining position as a break above 1.2570 would open up the way for a move towards 1.2640 followed by the February’s high of 1.2705.
AUD/USD: Neutral: Pull-back has scope to extend to 0.7555.
While downward momentum has eased somewhat, the current weakness in AUD is not showing sign of stabilization. Unless AUD can reclaim 0.7700, the risk is still tilted to the downside even though 0.7555 is a major support and a clear break below this level seems unlikely for now.
NZD/USD: Neutral: In a 0.6950/0.7090 range.
There is not much to add and we continue to view the current movement as part of a 0.6950/0.7090 consolidation range. While upward momentum is ticking higher, only a clear break above 0.7090 would indicate that a move towards 0.7130, 0.7160 has started. From here, upward momentum would continue to improve unless there is a move back below last Friday’s low near 0.6995.
USD/JPY: Neutral: Bearish if daily closing below 110.00.
We indicated last Friday that “with no signs of stabilization just yet, another push lower towards 110.00 cannot be ruled out (even though the odds for such a move are not high)”. The weak opening this morning indicates that downward momentum has shifted to a high gear and from here, a daily closing below 110.00 would indicate that USD has entered a bearish phase. This appears to be a likely scenario unless USD can move back above 111.50 within these few days.