Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY
EUR/USD: Neutral: In a 1.0715/1.0905 range.
The call to wait for a daily closing above 1.0870/75 before turning bullish was right as EUR unexpectedly dropped sharply to hit an overnight low 1.0796. The 1.0904 high registered on Monday is viewed as a short-term top and EUR has likely moved into a consolidation phase even though the immediate bias is for probe lower towards the bottom of the expected 1.0715/1.0905 range.
GBP/USD: Shift from bullish to neutral: Pull-back has scope to extend lower to 1.2300.
The sudden plunge in GBP yesterday was clearly unexpected. The break of 1.2465 indicates that the bullish phase that started last Monday has ended. The pull-back from the 1.2615 high seen earlier this week appears to have scope to extend lower to 1.2300. At this stage, a sustained move below this level is not expected. All in, GBP is expected to stay under pressure from here unless it can move and stay above 1.2505 within these few days.
AUD/USD: Neutral: Increased odds of a short-term low.
AUD hit a low of 0.7587 yesterday, holding above the major support indicated at 0.7550 in recent updates. The strong rebound ahead of the major support has increased the odds of a short-term low. However, AUD has to close above 0.7685 to indicate that another attempt to take out the major 0.7740/50 resistance has started. In the meanwhile, any pull-back is expected to encounter solid support at 0.7585/90.
NZD/USD: Neutral: In a 0.6950/0.7090 range.
NZD traded in a relatively narrow range yesterday and there is no further clue. We continue to view the current movement as part of a broad 0.6950/0.7090 consolidation range.
USD/JPY: Neutral: Above 111.50 indicates a short-term low is in place.
The key 110.00 support continues to hold as USD rebounded strongly from a low of 110.15. The recent downward pressure has eased but USD has to move above 111.50 to indicate that a short-term low is in place. In other words, it is too early to expect a sustained recovery even though on the converse, the odds for a break below 110.00 have diminished considerably.